Nifty Holds Firm Despite Global Uncertainty; Key Time Windows Ahead

WI June 2023

🎯 Previous Week Projection: Analysis on Spot

In our previous weekly article, we highlighted that Monday (July 13) could offer attractive intraday trading opportunities with the potential for strong directional momentum. The market responded largely in line with this expectation, witnessing a sustained one-sided move throughout the session. Nifty began the week on a strong note, gaining nearly 200 points to close at 24,208, reinforcing the significance of the identified time window.

In our previous weekly article, we highlighted that July 15 could emerge as an important trend reversal window, with the prevailing market direction likely to shift around or near this time. The market responded broadly in line with this expectation, as Nifty changed its direction on Friday, July 17, witnessing strong upside momentum. 

The price action once again reinforced the significance of combining time-cycle analysis with price action, proving that patience and disciplined execution often lead to better trading outcomes.

πŸ“Œ Market Highlights

Indian Benchmark indices logged their best gains in over a month on Friday on the back of heavy buying across large cap companies, especially IT and Financials, as investors turned optimists of a strong June quarter (Q1FY27) earnings. 

The gains on Friday helped the Benchmark indices to end the week higher after declining in the previous week. For the week the Nifty gained 0.5% to close at 24,334.30.

Despite renewed Middle East tensions, which kept the oil price elevated and added pressure on Indian rupee, the market held firm this week, helped by modest June quarter revenue gains at IT and as softer US inflation data eased imminent rate hike worries.

🌍 Global & Macro Developments

Domestic institutional investors remained the dominant buyers in the cash market this week, investing a net 9,808.64 crore in equities over the five trading sessions. 

In contrast, Foreign institutional investors continued to pare their holding, with cumulative net outflows of 9,119.76 crore during the same period. 

The Indian rupee recorded its sharpest weekly decline since May, falling nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar. The weakness was driven by higher crude oil prices and strong demand for the dollar amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.

Oil prices surged by approximately 13% this week, with Brent crude reaching around $88 per barrel and WTI nearing $82 driven by escalating military conflict between US and Iran, which have disrupted commercial shipping through the critical Strait of Hormuz. 

⏱️ Time Analysis Performance: Week in Review

Even in a volatile market environment, our Time Cycle projections once again aligned effectively with several important intraday turning points. Combined with our projected price levels, they continued to provide high-probability trading opportunities throughout the week.

πŸ—“ Monday – 13th July

Time Windows:
10:10 AM | 10:55 AM | 11:20 AM | 01:35 PM

  • 🎯 Strong upside momentum emerged near our projected time of 11:20 AM.
  • πŸ“ˆ Day high was formed near our projected time of 01:35 PM, close to our Lakshman Rekha level of 24,295.

πŸ—“ Tuesday – 14th July

Time Windows:
10:15 AM | 10:45 AM | 11:45 AM | 03:00 PM

  • πŸ“‰ Swing low formed near our projected time of 10:15 AM.
  • πŸ“ˆ Swing high formed near 10:45 AM.
  • πŸ“‰ Day low formed near our projected time of 03:00 PM.
  • 🚫 Day high developed near our projected resistance level of 24,125, where price faced multiple rejections before reversing lower.

πŸ—“ Wednesday – 15th July

Time Windows:
09:40 AM | 10:55 AM | 11:15 AM | 12:30 PM | 01:55 PM | 02:40 PM

  • 🎯 Day high formed near our projected time of 09:40 AM.
  • πŸ“‰ Strong selling pressure emerged near 12:30 PM.
  • πŸ“‰ Day low also formed near our projected time of 12:30 PM.
  • πŸ“ No major price action developed during the remaining projected time windows.

πŸ—“ Thursday – 16th July

Time Windows:
09:15 AM | 10:30 AM | 11:30 AM

  • 🚫 Day high was formed between 10:30 AM and 11:30 AM, close to our projected resistance level of 24,125, where price faced repeated resistance before reversing lower.

πŸ—“ Friday – 17th July

Time Windows:
10:20 AM | 10:50 AM | 11:40 AM | 01:00 PM

  • πŸ“‰ Swing low formed near our projected time of 01:00 PM, followed by strong upside momentum.
  • πŸ›‘ Day low developed near our projected support level of 24,125.
  • 🎯 Day high formed near our projected resistance level of 24,382.
  • πŸ“ No significant price action occurred during the remaining projected time windows.

Across the week, our Time Clusters and Projected Price Levels remained highly effective, especially when combined with structural price confirmation and momentum analysis.

⏰ Important Time Windows for the Week Ahead

(20th July – 24th July)

Based on our ongoing Time Cycle Analysis, the following intraday windows may remain significant.

πŸ—“ Monday – 20th July

10:20 AM | 12:35 PM | 01:35 PM | 02:20 PM | 02:35 PM

πŸ—“ Tuesday – 21st July

10:20 AM | 12:55 PM | 02:40 PM

πŸ—“ Wednesday – 22nd July

09:15 AM | 11:25 AM | 12:10 PM | 02:40 PM | 03:10 PM

πŸ—“ Thursday – 23rd July

09:15 AM | 09:35 AM | 11:45 AM | 12:30 PM | 03:05 PM

πŸ—“ Friday – 24th July

09:15 AM | 09:40 AM | 12:30 PM | 03:10 PM

These projected time clusters may indicate:

  • Volatility Expansion
  • Swing & Day Highs / Lows
  • Momentum Shifts

πŸ“Š Important Levels for the Week Ahead

🚫 Upside / Resistance Zone

24,382 | 24,450 | 24,480 | 24,535 | 24,646 | 24,685 | 25,023 | 25,082 | 25,165 | 25,230

πŸ›‘ Downside / Support Zone

24,220 | 24,125 | 24,010 | 23,935 | 23,872 | 23,812 | 23,783 | 23,466 | 23,332 | 23,230

Market behaviour near these levelsβ€”especially when aligned with our projected Time Windowsβ€”will be crucial in identifying momentum and the market’s next directional move.

πŸ“ Lakshman Rekha for Nifty

22,998 | 23,321 | 23,346 | 23,397 | 23,783 | 23,812 | 23,872 | 24,295 | 24,460 | 24,730 | 25,084 | 25,220

These remain highly sensitive price checkpoints where market behaviour may shift significantly. Traders should closely monitor price action around these zones, as they often coincide with trend continuation, reversals, and volatility expansion.

πŸ”Ž Outlook for Next Week

🎯 Tuesday’s High-Low to Set the Market Direction

Market participants should closely monitor Tuesday (July 21), as its high and low are expected to act as key reference levels for the market’s short or near-term direction. A decisive breakout above Tuesday’s high may trigger fresh bullish momentum, while a break below Tuesday’s low could signal bearishness and weakness in the market.

🎯 July 24 Could Offer Strong Intraday Trading Opportunities

Active traders should also keep a close watch on July 24, as the session may witness strong momentum and a sharp directional move. The market is likely to present attractive intraday trading opportunities, with the potential for sustained price action and heightened volatility throughout the session.

Apart from technical developments, investors should continue monitoring:

  • Q1 FY27 corporate earnings
  • Developments in West Asia
  • Crude oil price movements

These factors are expected to remain key drivers of market sentiment in the coming week.

Traders are advised to:

  • βœ” Focus on price confirmation near key levels
  • βœ” Maintain strict risk management
  • βœ” Avoid overtrading during highly volatile sessions
  • βœ” Use Time Clusters together with Price Action for higher-probability trading decisions

Disclaimer

Research by Team WealthView Analytics Pvt. Ltd.
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Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM do not guarantee performance or assure returns. This report is intended solely for educational purposes. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Always consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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